Disclaimer: I can’t be arsed collecting emails. But there’s a new mix published every Sunday 3pm EST. Come visit if you’re bored

Track 10: New Podcasts

Odd Lots

The Gist

The Scale of Debt is Hard to Grasp

• The podcast opens with a discussion on how massive financial figures, like the U.S. budget deficit ($1.8 trillion in 2024), are hard to comprehend without visual analogies (e.g., stacks of bills covering a football field).
• This lack of intuitive understanding makes it harder for the public to take debt problems seriously.

Key Takeaways in 5 Minutes

💰 The Debt Problem is Bigger Than Most Realize

• The U.S. deficit hit $1.8 trillion in 2024, and debt is piling up faster than income.
• Dalio warns that we’re near a major debt cycle inflection point.

📉 What Happens Next?

• Governments will likely print more money to fund debt, leading to inflation and a weaker dollar.
• Interest rates could spike unexpectedly, triggering market shocks.

🏦 Who Will Buy U.S. Debt?

• Foreign buyers (China, banks) are stepping back.
• The Fed may have to step in, leading to another round of QE (money printing).

🏆 Gold, Bitcoin & Hard Assets Might Shine

• As trust in fiat currencies declines, gold & Bitcoin could surge as alternative stores of value.

📊 What Should Traders Watch?

• Rising bond yields (signals stress in debt markets).
• Inflation trends & Fed policy shifts.
• Potential geopolitical shocks (sanctions, trade wars affecting debt markets).

⚡ Dalio’s Big Warning:
“If we don’t cut the deficit to 3% of GDP, we risk an economic ‘heart attack’ in the next 3 years.”

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Track 9: New Articles/Blogs

Another podcast/transcript worth looking at. John Roque is one of the best technical analysts in the game. Having worked for funds like Soros management.

The full transcript is here: https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/21197/gold-shines-tech-fades-john-roques-bold-market-call

Key Takeaways in 5 Minutes

📉 Tech Stocks Cracking

• Nvidia, despite strong earnings, has stagnated—Roque targets $90 for downside.
• Microsoft sliding, Apple holding up the best, but overall MAG7 stocks are weakening.
• Nasdaq and semiconductors face a bearish outlook—XLK is breaking down.

📊 S&P 500: A Sell-the-Rally Market

• Roque sees the S&P dropping to 5500, possibly 5200 as leadership shifts.
• Risk-off period: Defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare) are outperforming.
• “Sell rallies, not buy dips.”

🏦 Interest Rates Outlook

• 10-year yield may drop to 3.6%, with the 2-year looking even weaker.
• Tariffs & politics (Trump’s push for lower rates) add uncertainty.

🏅 Precious Metals & Commodities

• Gold up 28% last year, silver and copper also strong—Roque sees further gains.
• Gold may outperform the S&P in the long run.
• Oil divergence: Energy weakens (oil target: $52) while copper rises.

🌎 Foreign Markets Beating the U.S.

• Europe & Hong Kong leading—a shift from previous cycles.
• Different sector winners abroad vs. U.S., signaling unique opportunities.

⚠️ Trump 2.0 & Market Uncertainty

• Unlike Trump 1.0, which focused on markets, Trump 2.0 prioritizes policy changes.
• Roque believes Trump is willing to accept a 5% S&P decline for long-term objectives.